It doesn’t take much to get we Conservatives excited – and certainly, any remote possibility to watch the Iranian Islamic Republic get overthrown is grounds for us to get downright bat shit crazy with excitement. But what is reality here?
Without even looking at Iran we know that contemporary Democratic processes aren’t always what they’re cracked up to be. There was a day when the words “Freedom and Democracy” and the movements associated with them meant something. That day is passed and today – Democratic movements are often exploited by authoritarian ones. And even though it sounds “tin foil” … I’ll argue that the U.S. government, under Democratic control – is becoming a “Managed Democracy”. That’s another topic though.
But we can certainly conclude here that Democratic movements don’t always produce Democratic outcomes. The Russian Democratic movement produced an authoritarian government in Moscow. The Venezuelan Democratic movement produced an authoritarian government – in fact, this notion of Democratic authoritarianism runs rampant throughout Central America. And in the middle east – Palestinian Democracy produced Hamas.
Iran has been a “managed” authoritarian Democracy for over 30 years now. In light of this – shouldn’t we be supporting the folks in the streets who are backing Mousavi … the … “reformist”?
In one word … NO.
Who is Mir Hossein Mousavi?
Well, uhm … he’s an original participating member of the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and a founding member of the Islamic Republic Party. Mousavi himself claimed to the New York Times in 1981 that he went to the Untited States in the late 70’s to organize resistance against the Shah. He was a key player in the revolution – so much so – that he was rewarded with the Prime Ministership of Iran for most of the 80’s. His accomplishments during that tenure? Well, not a lot of “reforming” – but he can claim 144 extraterritorial assassinations during the premiership, the massacre of nearly 30,000 political prisoners on the eve of the signing of the 1988 UN Iran-Iraq cease-fire accord, and the 1983 embassy and marine barrack bombings in Beirut.
That’s right sportsfans and lovers of democratic movements – Mousavi was involved in the killing of U.S. Marines in Beirut. This is the same Mousavi that Conservatives like Bill Krystal are urging us to support.
My friends – Mousavi’s previous life as a tyrant of the Islamic Republic alone should disqualify him from our affections. No offense to the average Iranian in the streets supporting him – but Iranians are known for being “duped” by their political class and jumping on the wrong bandwagons. Mousavi is no “reformer”.
Important to note here – that in Iran – all candidates for the office of President have to be cleared and approved by the Supreme Leader in order to have their names on the ballots. Let’s be clear here – the Supreme Leader isn’t going to allow a real “reformer” to BE on the ballot – everyone on that ballot is someone he feels he can work with – at least in a pinch.
Oh and, by the way … here’s a picture of the Supreme Leader visiting Mousavi’s ailing father … taken about a month ago.
Does this look like a photo of two people who hate each other? It shouldn’t – both of these men were allies in the Islamic Revolution. Both of them played an instrumental and cooperative role in eliminating the Shah’s political allies (or those they perceived to be his allies).
So why doesn’t the Supreme Leader just allow Mousavi to become the President? Well – let’s first note that we’re ASSUMING that Mousavi won the election – when no real evidence has been presented that he did. If indeed Amadinnerjacket won the race – perhaps Mr. Supremo is simply playing the “Guardian” of the few democratic principles the Islamic Republic allows. It’s possible.
It’s possible the Revolutionary Guard like Amadinnerjacket so much – they went out and “fixed” the election for him once they realized he wasn’t going to win. Maybe they didn’t complain enough in the beginning when Mr. Supremo was “screening” the candidates and allowed Mr. Mousavi to run. Or maybe they thought Amadinnerjacket could beat Mousavi in an honest race – then realized otherwise. Whatever … but the fact that Mousavi was on the ballot means that Mr. Supremo, at the very least – was willing to work with him if he got elected.
Things have changed a bit now – and I suspect Mousavi’s open disrespect in the wake of the election have caused more than a few government insiders to take a decidedly more negative view of him. However – if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard can’t put this thing back together – I expect that Mr. Supremo will magically “find” enough votes to install Mr. Mousavi as President afterall.
And in that case – Mousavi will be a good little President for the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard – the same way that Mohammad Khatami and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, two previous “reformist” Presidents were.
If he isn’t – then Mr. Mousavi will be “assasinated” in what will be described by the Revolutionary Guard as a “Zionist Plot” – or he’ll meet some other untimely misfortune.
And this is the way the Islamic Republic of Iran works.
Now to specific points – made by fellow Conservatives …
1. We need to support the protestors – regime change in Iran is the only way we can save Israel by keeping nuclear weapons out of the hands of the Iranians.
This is partially true – “regime change” does offer us a chance to keep nukes out of the hands of the Iranians – but the protestors aren’t calling for regime change. Oh sure – you can find a couple in the streets with cellphones that will TELL YOU they want regime change – but the fact is – Mousavi supports the regime 100 percent. Mousavi is only asking for the seat that he thinks he rightfully won in the election. Remember – Mousavi has almost his entire life invested in the Islamic Revolution – he’s not giving that up folks. If you’re looking for regime change – this isn’t it.
2. Who cares? We need to keep Iran from getting nukes and Mousavi will be easier to work with to that end than Amadinnerjacket!
Uhm – no he won’t. First – it’s the Supreme Leader that makes ALL decisions concerning the current push to nuclear arm Iran. Amadinnerjacket is simply a foul-mouthed mouthpiece for the Supreme Leader. If Mousavi is elected – there is no change here except for the fact that Mousavi will support nuclearization without being as foul-mouthed about it. In this circumstance – this actually argues that we should support Amadinnerjacket because he’s disliked and generally perceived as a mad man by our allies – the ones we need to hold tight sanctions on Iran. Put a nice looking and well-spoken old man like Mousavi in the office – and our allies may go a bit weak in the knees. Amadinnerjacket polorizes our allies against Iran – and that’s a good thing. All things being equal … I’d rather have Amadinnerjacket for this very reason.
The above are the two main (most lucid) reasons I see Conservatives citing as reasons we need to support the protesters. But as I’ve outlined – they are still impossible fantasies.
I’d like to take a detour here and remember the fact that Iran, under the Shah – was a well respected nation worldwide. Itw as seen as a stabile, modern, pro-western nation. The U.S. trained many of the Shah’s fighter pilots. We sold the Shah our most advanced aircraft and ships. Women in Iran were not required to “cover” themselves – the people had a great deal of freedom – as long as they didn’t challenge the Shah’s authority too much. The Shah was hard on his political enemies – but not at all on your average Iranian citizen. And – even so – eventually the Iranians could have navigated their way to more democracy under the Shah – but they chose a different path.
They chose … ISLAMIC REVOLUTION. It was not thrust upon them. Most governments in the middle east forced themselves on their populations but not in the case of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Islamic Republic was pretty much endorsed by the majority of the Iranian people. They chose this form of government.
A lot of people say – that was 30 years ago – and the kids in the streets today feel differently. If that were true they should drag their parents into the streets and make them fix what they broke – 30 years ago, and not look to America to solve their problem. However – the fact is the kids in the street don’t like Israel and they support the nuclearization of Iran. They are in the streets for selfish reasons only – they want more liberty for themselves, even though they have no problem with driving Jews into the sea in Israel.
Whatever – but we should not help them in this endeavor.
What then should we do?
We need to encourage both sides to slaughter each other. The fact is – there are people in Iran that DO want regime change but no one is going to listen to them until they’ve seen the Clerics do their “worst”. Only then – will Iranians abandon their notions of “reforming” the Islamic Republic and shift gears into OVERTHROWING it.
The U.S. should recognize (officially) that the Iranian Islamic Constitution is fatally flawed and … of course … difficulties like the current one are going to arise. We should announce that we stand with the Iranian people for regime change – if that is what they wish – but we’re not going to get involved in fixing a car that’s beyond economical repair – which is analogous to the current Iranian Constitution. Obama should announce that, even as broke as we are we’re still willing to give financial aid and support to any NEW Iranian regime – but we’ll not give one penny nor show support for any regime that resembles the current managed authoritarian democracy that governs Iran – and that goes for whether or not Amadinnerjacket or Mousavi occupies the Presidency.
Lastly – here’s a good article at about.com that details the life and times of Mousavi. Pay close attention to his anti-american views … expressed in his own words. Then decide for yourself if you think this man is the answer to Iran’s problems.
Never blindly support those who argue for “Democracy” – they are very often Trojan Horses.
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